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Authors
Abstract(s)
O investimento de carteira tem vindo a ganhar relevância em termos
económicos, expresso pelo peso que assume no Produto Interno Bruto de cada país.
Embora o Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) tenha permitido colmatar
alguma insuficiência de dados designadamente, em termos da localização dos ativos de
investimento de carteira, prevalecem um conjunto de limitações como, por exemplo, falta
de reporte por parte de alguns países, ou reporte incompleto com a ausência de
algumas variáveis ou dimensões estatísticas.
Nesse sentido, este relatório propõe uma nova abordagem que permite dar
resposta à falta de cobertura de informação estatística e, desde logo, melhor
identificação dos investimentos na forma de dívida e capital que cada país fez com o
exterior. Este trabalho inclui informação recolhida do CPIS e da Posição de Investimento
Internacional. Os resultados obtidos permitem aferir, com maior fiabilidade, a residência
dos investidores finais do investimento de carteira, validados com testes de robustez e
pela evolução com menores oscilações significativas do investimento mundial quando
incorporadas as estimativas.
A metodologia proposta permite ultrapassar as lacunas dos dados existentes no
CPIS. As estimativas têm um maior impacto, em termos absolutos, nas economias que
mais investimento de carteira captam e, em alguns semestres, representam 20% dos
dados disponíveis. Assim, e de acordo com as estimativas obtidas através dos dados
existentes conclui-se que a União Europeia, Estados Unidos da América, Reino Unido
e Japão assumem papel de relevo como investidores mundiais (representam 81% dos
ativos) e que investem, sobretudo, entre si e nas Ilhas Caimão (captam 79% do
investimento mundial). No período em análise (2001 a 2020), a crise financeira de 2008
condicionou a transação dos ativos e passivos destes países. A saída do Reino Unido
da União Europeia (Brexit) condicionou negativamente o investimento no exterior,
nomeadamente na União Europeia, não se verificando uma alteração significativa na
captação de financiamento de países terceiros.
Este estudo dá um contributo adicional à literatura existente na extensão do
período e número de países analisados, permitindo colmatar algumas das lacunas
identificadas no CPIS, nomeadamente a cobertura incompleta dos dados ao estimar,
principalmente, os períodos findos em junho de cada ano, onde a cobertura era mais
afetada, e desagregar os títulos (capital e dívida) nessa estimativa. Deste modo, as
autoridades responsáveis pela compilação de estatísticas externas podem estimar o
financiamento captado em países que não reportam informação ao CPIS (acompanhando a periodicidade semestral do próprio inquérito) e ainda, projetar o
investimento para períodos futuros.
ABSTRACT: Portfolio investment has been gaining economic relevance, expressed by the weight it assumes in the Gross Domestic Product of each country. Although the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) has allowed to overcome some data insufficiency, namely in terms of location of portfolio investment assets, a set of limitations prevail, such as, for instance, lack of reporting by some countries, or incomplete reporting with the absence of some variables or statistical dimensions. For that matter, this report proposes a new approach to address the lack of statistical information coverage and, therefore, better identify the investments in the form of debt and equity that each country has made abroad. This work includes information collected from the CPIS and the International Investment Position. The results obtained allow a more reliable measure of the residence of the final investors in portfolio investment, validated with robustness tests and by the evolution with smaller significant oscillations of world investment when the estimates are incorporated. The proposed methodology allows the existing data gaps in CPIS to be overcome. The estimates have a greater impact, in absolute terms, on the economies that capture the most portfolio investment and, in some semesters, represent 20% of the available data. Thus, and according to the estimates obtained through the existing data, we conclude that the European Union, the United States of America, the United Kingdom and Japan play a major role as world investors (accounting for 81% of assets) and that they invest mainly among themselves and in the Cayman Islands (79% of world investment). In the period under review (2001 to 2020), the 2008 financial crisis has conditioned the transaction of assets and liabilities of these countries. The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (Brexit) has negatively conditioned investment abroad, namely in the European Union, and there has been no significant change in the attraction of funding from other countries. This study provides an additional contribution to the existing literature in the extension of the period and number of countries analyzed, allowing to fill some of the gaps identified in the CPIS, namely the incomplete coverage of data by estimating mainly the periods ending in June each year, where coverage was more affected, and disaggregating securities (equity and debt) in this estimate. Thereby, the authorities responsible for compiling external statistics can estimate the financing raised in countries that do not report information to the CPIS (following the biannual periodicity of the survey itself) and also project investment for future periods.
ABSTRACT: Portfolio investment has been gaining economic relevance, expressed by the weight it assumes in the Gross Domestic Product of each country. Although the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) has allowed to overcome some data insufficiency, namely in terms of location of portfolio investment assets, a set of limitations prevail, such as, for instance, lack of reporting by some countries, or incomplete reporting with the absence of some variables or statistical dimensions. For that matter, this report proposes a new approach to address the lack of statistical information coverage and, therefore, better identify the investments in the form of debt and equity that each country has made abroad. This work includes information collected from the CPIS and the International Investment Position. The results obtained allow a more reliable measure of the residence of the final investors in portfolio investment, validated with robustness tests and by the evolution with smaller significant oscillations of world investment when the estimates are incorporated. The proposed methodology allows the existing data gaps in CPIS to be overcome. The estimates have a greater impact, in absolute terms, on the economies that capture the most portfolio investment and, in some semesters, represent 20% of the available data. Thus, and according to the estimates obtained through the existing data, we conclude that the European Union, the United States of America, the United Kingdom and Japan play a major role as world investors (accounting for 81% of assets) and that they invest mainly among themselves and in the Cayman Islands (79% of world investment). In the period under review (2001 to 2020), the 2008 financial crisis has conditioned the transaction of assets and liabilities of these countries. The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (Brexit) has negatively conditioned investment abroad, namely in the European Union, and there has been no significant change in the attraction of funding from other countries. This study provides an additional contribution to the existing literature in the extension of the period and number of countries analyzed, allowing to fill some of the gaps identified in the CPIS, namely the incomplete coverage of data by estimating mainly the periods ending in June each year, where coverage was more affected, and disaggregating securities (equity and debt) in this estimate. Thereby, the authorities responsible for compiling external statistics can estimate the financing raised in countries that do not report information to the CPIS (following the biannual periodicity of the survey itself) and also project investment for future periods.
Description
Keywords
Investimento de carteira CPIS Residência dos investidores