Browsing by Author "Reis, Pedro Manuel Nogueira"
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- A new European investor sentiment index (EURsent) and its return and volatility predictabilityPublication . Reis, Pedro Manuel Nogueira; Pinho, CarlosThis study presents a new European investor sentiment index, EURsent, based on new individual sentiment proxies such as VSTOXX, gold, and the German bond yield spread, and studies the spillover and contagion between the United States and Europe. Furthermore, it analyses the simultaneous influence of this new sentiment measure index on both volatility and stock returns, including causality. Applying well-established statistical techniques, such as principal component analysis, ordinary least squares, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH), generalized ARCH (GARCH), and threshold GARCH models, the findings demonstrate how EURsent is closely interrelated with the most universally recognized sentiment index in academia, demonstrating strong co-movement between the US and European stock markets, mainly prior to the global subprime crisis. The study also applies vector autoregressive modelling and OOS analysis that allows one to conclude that EURsent is a strong predictor of market returns, through the discount rate and cash flow news, although the latter is the most relevant channel. This study creates a truly representative measure of global European investor sentiment that is comparable to that created by Baker and Wurgler for the United States, interlinking a holistic sentiment measure index, sustained on new single investor sentiment proxies, with conditionally market volatility and market returns, suggesting causality. EURsent could thus be a tool for investment managers, investors, and financial service providers as well as regulators to monitor the evolution of stock markets.
- A pedagogical, educational and biological farm as a new line of profitable businessPublication . Almeida, Carlos Alberto Ferreira de; Reis, Pedro Manuel Nogueira; Batista, Rui Pedro Manita d’Antas Marques; Gomes, Sandra Isabel Correia; Antunes, Joaquim GonçalvesThe aim of this article is to provide a business case analysis of educational, pedagogical and biological farm incorporation in the center of Portugal (Penalva do Castelo) taking advantage of all its income potentialities. We conduct a quite large survey (413questionnaires) over two segments of population: random people and teaching community as a potential indirect channel of customers (the schools)to appraise the market opportunity. We applied descriptive analysis, where we used absolute and relative frequency, mean and standard deviation values; inferential analysis, where we used the unilateral, non-parametric Mann-Whitney test (M-W); Factor Analysis; and Structural Equations Model to reach conclusions about the motives of visiting a Pedagogical farm as well about the potential clients‟ features and, consequently, derive about the acceptance of the project. With an area of 173,078 sqm, the educational project of” Pedagogical Farm-The Owl” is based mainly on five services: education, animation, training, health and agriculture, designated by the programs: "The Owl teaches", "The Owl animates", "The Owl trains", “Health Owl” and “The farmer Owl”. The relationship between people's lifestyles and their potential interest in practicing activities related to Pedagogical Farms is also addressed in this study where we conclude that lifestyle influences the motivations to visit a pedagogical farm. This study further provides strong evidence for the acceptance and implementation of the project since it is proved to be viable and profitable with a payback period of 4 years. This project at the end of the second year of activity, with the results obtained, will also allow to expand the business through the creation of residential tourism, although this line of business isn´t studied in detail.