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Abstract(s)
Este trabalho aborda a previsão da vulnerabilidade financeira ex-ante à insolvência no contexto
das PME industriais portuguesas. Inspirado no trabalho de Pindado, Rodrigues e Torre (2008),
propomos um modelo de probabilidade de vulnerabilidade financeira que considera o efeito dos
fluxos de caixa nas fases de vulnerabilidade mais precoces da insolvência. A estimação deste
modelo probabilístico tem em conta distintos graus de vulnerabilidade financeira, e controla os
efeitos de choques macroeconómicos exógenos através de variáveis dummy. A sua
especificação foi confirmada utilizando a metodologia de dados em painel e todas as hipóteses
de trabalho sobre os determinantes de vulnerabilidade financeira foram validadas, pois todas as
variáveis explicativas, com destaque para a variável de fluxos de caixa, seguem o sinal esperado
e são estatisticamente significativas. Os resultados obtidos para distintas condições de
vulnerabilidade financeira remetem para potencial complementaridade da utilização de
múltiplos indicadores de vulnerabilidade financeira na prevenção e intervenção atempada nas
empresas diagnosticadas.
ABSTRACT: This study addresses the prediction of ex-ante financial vulnerability to insolvency in the context of Portuguese industrial SMEs. Inspired by the work of Pindado, Rodrigues, and Torre (2008), we propose a model of financial vulnerability probability that considers the effect of cash flows on the earliest stages of insolvency vulnerability. The estimation of this probabilistic model takes into account different degrees of financial vulnerability and controls for the effects of exogenous macroeconomic shocks through dummy variables. Its specification was confirmed using panel data methodology, and all working hypotheses on the determinants of financial vulnerability were validated, as all explanatory variables, especially the cash flow variable, follow the expected sign and are statistically significant. The results obtained for different conditions of financial vulnerability suggest the potential complementarity of using multiple indicators of financial vulnerability in the prevention and timely intervention in diagnosed companies.
ABSTRACT: This study addresses the prediction of ex-ante financial vulnerability to insolvency in the context of Portuguese industrial SMEs. Inspired by the work of Pindado, Rodrigues, and Torre (2008), we propose a model of financial vulnerability probability that considers the effect of cash flows on the earliest stages of insolvency vulnerability. The estimation of this probabilistic model takes into account different degrees of financial vulnerability and controls for the effects of exogenous macroeconomic shocks through dummy variables. Its specification was confirmed using panel data methodology, and all working hypotheses on the determinants of financial vulnerability were validated, as all explanatory variables, especially the cash flow variable, follow the expected sign and are statistically significant. The results obtained for different conditions of financial vulnerability suggest the potential complementarity of using multiple indicators of financial vulnerability in the prevention and timely intervention in diagnosed companies.
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Keywords
PME Insolvência Fluxo de caixa Dados em painel Modelo de vulnerabilidade financeira