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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
A partir das tendências demográficas projectadas para as próximas décadas em Portugal, são deduzidos os argumentos apontados genericamente como ameças para o Sistema de Segurança Social nacional. Além disso, pretendemos analisar o efeito que outras variáveis macroeconómicas, como o número de ativos, o número de não ativos e taxa desemprego, poderão ter no Subsistema Previdencial de Pensões. Centrámos a nossa análise no PIB, no sentido em que será este indicador a determinar a capacidade das gerações futuras em sustentar os não ativos. Particularmente, determinamos qual o crescimento da produtividade necessário para compensar o efeito negativo do fator demográfico (por via do “esforço de trabalho”) no PIBpc de que as gerações futuras vão beneficiar, sem que esta sustentabilidade possa induzir uma quebra da solidariedade inter-geracional. Assim, consideramos que o Sistema Público de Pensões se manteria sustentável se o peso da Despesa Pública em Pensões em percentagem do PIB não aumentasse. Constatámos que um ligeiro aumento na variável produtividade poderá determinar mesmo um ligeiro decréscimo do peso da Despesa em Pensões no PIB, ou seja, esta análise aponta no sentido da manutenção da sustentabilidade do Sistema Público de Pensões, pressupondo cenários realistas para as restantes variáveis que sustentam o sistema.
ABSTRACT: From demographic trends projected for the next decades in Portugal, are deducted the arguments generically brought forward as threats to the national Social Security System. In addition, we intend to analyse the effect that other macroeconomic variables such as the number of active people, the number of non-active and unemployment rate may have in the Welfare Subsystem of Pensions. We have focused our analysis on GDP, in the sense that it is this indicator that is going to determine the ability of future generations to sustain non-active people. In particular, we determine which productivity growth is needed to overtake the negative effect of demographic factor (by the “work effort”) in GDPpc that future generations will benefit, without that sustainability can induce a fall in inter-generational solidarity. We therefore consider that the Public Pension System would remain sustainable if the weight of public expenditure on pension as a percentage of GDP did not increase. We found that a slight increase in productivity variable may even determine a slight decrease in the weight of expenditure on pensions in GDP, ie, this analysis points towards maintaining sustainability of the Public Pension System, assuming realistic scenarios for the remaining variables that support the system.
ABSTRACT: From demographic trends projected for the next decades in Portugal, are deducted the arguments generically brought forward as threats to the national Social Security System. In addition, we intend to analyse the effect that other macroeconomic variables such as the number of active people, the number of non-active and unemployment rate may have in the Welfare Subsystem of Pensions. We have focused our analysis on GDP, in the sense that it is this indicator that is going to determine the ability of future generations to sustain non-active people. In particular, we determine which productivity growth is needed to overtake the negative effect of demographic factor (by the “work effort”) in GDPpc that future generations will benefit, without that sustainability can induce a fall in inter-generational solidarity. We therefore consider that the Public Pension System would remain sustainable if the weight of public expenditure on pension as a percentage of GDP did not increase. We found that a slight increase in productivity variable may even determine a slight decrease in the weight of expenditure on pensions in GDP, ie, this analysis points towards maintaining sustainability of the Public Pension System, assuming realistic scenarios for the remaining variables that support the system.
Description
Keywords
Evolução demográfica Sistema de pensões Português Modelos de sustentabilidade e políticas sociais Previsões das entidades oficiais